When Chad Holbrook took over as head coach we knew not everything would be the same as it was under Ray Tanner. Something that has seemed different this year is the frequency with which our runners attempt to steal bases and the frequency with which they get caught. One of those is true; the other just seems that way.
South Carolina is stealing with more frequency, but they aren't getting caught as often. South Carolina has stolen 23 bases in 33 attempts thus far this season. (All Stats through the Missouri series.) That is 1.65 attempts per game and a 69.70% success rate. Last year Carolina took off 1.03 times per game and succeeded 61.97% of the time. In 2011 USC attempted 0.86/game and succeeded 69.49% of those attempts. In 2010 it was 1.07/game and 70.67%.
2013's success rate is in-line with historical norms and an improvement from last season. Still, they aren't being successful enough. Whether to steal or not is a matter of playing the odds, and right now, we aren't doing that.
Baseball lends itself well to statistical analysis and in any given situation there are expected outcomes. Most of us assume that when the bases are loaded with no outs the batting team is likely to score more runs that inning than an inning when there are no runners on and two outs. Statistical analysis would confirm this assumption. In fact, it is the acknowledgement of this proposition that makes stealing bases attractive. All other things being equal, a runner on second is better than a runner on first. The big question is: how much better? And how much worse is it to have no runners and an out?no comments